At some point, the roaring stock market may turn into a bear market, and a depression could begin. If that happens, politicians will have to deal with higher unemployment rates and mounting pressure to create jobs. More protectionism and trade barriers will likely follow.
International affairs
Relations between the United States and China will cast a shadow over international relations and the global economy. The degree to which the two superpowers manage to co-exist, and sometimes collaborate, will set the tone around the globe, from climate change to economic growth and regional security.
U.S.-China ties will not, however, impact East Asia (including North Korea and Taiwan) as the entrenched interests of the U.S. and China don’t align. A divided Korea ensures that the U.S.-supported South Korea and the China-backed North Korea must share the peninsula. A united Korea inevitably would be drawn in to the orbit of one of the superpowers, necessitating a response from the other.
Hot spots in international affairs will continue to be in Eastern Europe, the Middle East and North Africa, with their longstanding territorial and ideological conflict. Separatism will be alive and well in Scotland, while pressure for a union of Ireland will rise in Northern Ireland.
Germany, with a new chancellor after 16 years of Angela Merkel, will remain a pillar of political stability in Europe and beyond. The nation’s three-party coalition is solid and will broadly adhere to international policies that aren’t very different from those of the past decade.